US: retail sales and FOMC minutes due next week – Danske Bank
Analysts from Danske Bank present next week key economic events in the US: retail sales, FOMC minutes and University of Michigan Consumer Confidence.
“In the US, we start off with the retail sales figures for July on Tuesday. We do not expect retail sales to deviate significantly from its only moderately growing trend. Overall, we expect consumption growth to continue at a decent pace, which should be mirrored by positive retail sales growth.”
“On Wednesday, the FOMC meeting minutes are due for release. Focus will remain on the discussions on the timing of quantitative tightening. At the FOMC meeting in July, officials said QE tightening would begin “relatively soon”. Information deduced from the meeting minutes on what “relatively soon” means is therefore of special interest. It is our expectation that the tightening will commence in September. Additionally, observers will also examine how concerned the Fed is about (the lack of) inflation. In the statement in July, the Fed pointed to inflation “below 2%” instead of “somewhat below 2%” from the statement in June.”
“The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence for August is due for release on Friday. In January, consumer confidence reached 98.5, its highest level in over a decade. Since January, it has declined to 93.4 in July, mainly driven by less optimistic expectations while the current situation indicator has continued to rise. In the wake of increasing tension and harder rhetoric between the US and North Korea, the consumer confidence figure is likely to be lower in August.”